Live Signal Record

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Research, not advice  ·  Publish-before-enter discipline
Last signal 1d ago

Verified record begins 2026-05-14. Every entry is created automatically with a server-set timestamp the moment a signal is published (before any position is taken) and priced at the underlying's market price then. It cannot be back-dated, cherry-picked, or padded. A conservative underlying basis; an options expression amplifies both ways. Nothing before 2026-05-14 is counted.

How this record works, and what it isn't
Every signal is published before I enter, never after. I publish what I would trade myself, but I will not pretend I take every position at size: capital is finite, and some calls I publish for subscribers I cannot personally hold alongside everything else.
So the record below is a model. Each published call is scored at its published price and timestamp, against a fully specified contract you can verify on the chain yourself. It is the auditable scoreboard of the calls. It is not my personal account statement.
Realized to date  ·  what closed, not a forecast
8 closed calls
$2.09
$1 equal-weight in each became this
Avg per call
+109%
options basis, since May 14, 2026
Best / worst
+817% / -77%
3 of 8 closed green
This is the realized history of closed positions, stated as fact — not a win-rate, an annualized return, or a projection. The sample is deliberately too small for that; we hold predictive stats until 25 closed and 90 days. Closed winners outpaced closed losers roughly 7.4 to 1 in size — the small-capped-loss, outsized-winner shape the strategy is built around. Option premia, published basis, real fills vary.
Market over the same window
May 14 → Jul 09, 2026
SPY
+0.5%
QQQ
+0.5%
Broad-market reference. Closed-signal average return is shown in the stats below, and the full ledger lets you read every winner and loser yourself.
Core equity book vs market
Model SPY QQQ
+4% 0% -4% 2026-05-14 2026-07-09
Equal-weight across every closed Core signal at the UNDERLYING price. Indexed to 2026-05-14. Octane (options-basis) closes are tracked on the separate Octane curve below.
Octane options book
Model SPY +0.5% QQQ +0.5%
+1938% 0% -175% 2026-05-14 2026-07-09
Equal-weight across every closed Octane signal at the OPTION price (entry_basis to exit_basis). Indexed to 2026-05-14. Option returns are inherently amplified vs the underlying, which is why SPY/QQQ are shown as same-window deltas in the header rather than plotted on the same y-axis. This line shows the published basis, not a guaranteed fill.
Where the edge comes from
1. Macro thesis depth. A multi-year, regime-aware framework that names what each macro phase rewards before the tape confirms it. The thesis is the parent; signals are its expression in tradable structure.
2. Publish-before-enter discipline. Every position is timestamped on the public ledger before capital touches it. This is the structural defence against the survivorship bias and post-hoc storytelling that kills most signal services.
3. Position-aware coaching, not generic signals. The AI sees your actual book, your income sector, and your domain expertise, and weighs each signal against your exposure. A signal that's a re-add for one subscriber is a fresh entry for another.
Read the framework: The Euphoria Trap
Concentration over diversification
I publish the high-conviction trade, not a "balanced" basket. One or two right calls cover the rest of the year; spreading capital across nine themes to feel safe dilutes the only edge a domain expert actually has. Position sizing is the subscriber's call, informed by the in-app Allocation Compass that weighs domain expertise, current regime, and the gap between your book and the theme.
Building in public
22 signals published  ·  8 closed  ·  13 live  ·  since May 14, 2026.
We don't publish a win-rate or average return until the sample is statistically honest (25 closed signals and 90 days). Until then, here is the complete unfiltered ledger (winners and losers, open and closed) exactly as it stands.
Live 7 open Marked: Jul 09, 2026
Ticker Side Entry Last Unrealized Held Entered
ET Hard commodity
signal published Jun 05, 11:12 ET @ $19.63		 LONG $19.63 $19.79 +0.8% 5w Jun 05, 2026
GLD Gold cycle
signal published May 28, 09:32 ET @ $406.41		 LONG $406.41 $378.18 -6.9% 6w May 28, 2026
IONQ Quantum / AI
signal published May 22, 09:48 ET @ $63.64		 LONG $63.64 $44.77 -29.7% 7w May 22, 2026
MRNA Pandemic theme
signal published May 19, 10:43 ET @ $48.11		 LONG $48.11 $76.56 +59.1% 7w May 19, 2026
CSX Bull grind
signal published May 19, 09:33 ET @ $46.28		 LONG $46.28 $49.35 +6.6% 7w May 19, 2026
SLV Hard commodity
signal published May 15, 09:58 ET @ $69.04		 LONG $69.04 $54.14 -21.6% 8w May 15, 2026
LWLG Bull grind
signal published May 14, 10:37 ET @ $14.93		 LONG $14.93 $7.09 -52.5% 8w May 14, 2026
Unrealized · underlying basis · marked at last close. Open positions are not realized returns. Paper moves change daily and many will not be captured. Subscribe for live entry alerts →
Octane: options basis 8 closed · 6 live
Each Octane row is the exact option named in the signal, entered at the price published in the signal (its limit) and timestamped before any position. The contract is shown so anyone can verify it against the option chain. Wide-spread limits mean real fills vary; this is the published basis, not a guaranteed fill.
Contract Entry Exit / Status Return
AFL260717C115 LONG CALL Bull grind
signal published Jun 08, 09:42 ET @ $4.50
signal closed Jun 09, 09:40 ET @ $3.50 		$4.50 $3.50 · Jun 09, 2026 -22%
OKTA260717C150 LONG CALL Cyber theme
signal published Jun 03, 09:37 ET @ $4.90
signal closed Jun 04, 09:31 ET @ $3.00 		$4.90 $3.00 · Jun 04, 2026 -39%
OKTA260717C150 LONG CALL Cyber theme
signal published Jun 02, 12:06 ET @ $5.50
signal closed Jun 04, 09:31 ET @ $3.00 		$5.50 $3.00 · Jun 04, 2026 -46%
PANW260918C340 LONG CALL Cyber theme
signal published May 27, 09:32 ET @ $6.50
signal closed Jun 04, 09:30 ET @ $12.50 		$6.50 $12.50 · Jun 04, 2026 +92%
IONQ260717C85 LONG CALL Quantum / AI
signal published May 22, 09:48 ET @ $3.80
signal closed Jun 18, 14:29 ET @ $1.15 (blended) 		$3.80 $1.15 blended · Jun 18, 2026 -70%
Scaled out: 50% @ $1.80 (2026-06-05)  ·  50% @ $0.50 (2026-06-18)
IBM260717C260 LONG CALL Cyber theme
signal published May 21, 09:45 ET @ $4.50
signal closed Jun 04, 09:30 ET @ $41.26 (blended) 		$4.50 $41.26 blended · Jun 04, 2026 +817%
Scaled out: 33% @ $23.50 (2026-05-28)  ·  67% @ $50.00 (2026-06-04)
ASTS260821C120 LONG CALL Cyber theme
signal published May 14, 11:17 ET @ $7.50
signal closed Jun 05, 11:24 ET @ $23.75 (blended) 		$7.50 $23.75 blended · Jun 05, 2026 +217%
Scaled out: 67% @ $28.50 (2026-05-26)  ·  33% @ $14.10 (2026-06-05)
LWLG260918C16 LONG CALL Bull grind
signal published May 14, 10:38 ET @ $4.35
signal closed Jun 18, 14:27 ET @ $1.00 		$4.35 $1.00 · Jun 18, 2026 -77%
SLB270115C50 LONG CALL Energy / geopolitics
signal published Jul 08, 15:10 ET @ $3.70 		$3.70 OPEN · Jul 08, 2026 · 2d held -1% M2M
QQQ -660P/+700P DEBIT VERTICAL Bull grind
signal published Jun 16, 15:15 ET @ $7.85 		$7.85 OPEN · Jun 16, 2026 · 24d held -3% M2M
MET260717C85 LONG CALL Bull grind RUNNER
signal published Jun 09, 13:42 ET @ $3.15 		$3.15 OPEN · Jun 09, 2026 · 31d held +113% M2M
Trimmed 75% so far, banked +94.0% · 75% @ $7.10 · runner still open
GLD270115C500 LONG CALL Gold cycle
signal published May 28, 09:31 ET @ $7.80 		$7.80 OPEN · May 28, 2026 · 43d held -61% M2M
NOK +16C/-18C DEBIT VERTICAL Bull grind
signal published May 27, 10:41 ET @ $0.60 		$0.60 OPEN · May 27, 2026 · 44d held -100% M2M
CSX260918C47.5 LONG CALL Bull grind
signal published May 19, 09:33 ET @ $2.20 		$2.20 OPEN · May 19, 2026 · 52d held +39% M2M
Every option here risks only the premium paid, known at entry. A deep negative mark is a small, capped, pre-sized loss by design, not a blow-up: max loss on a long call or debit spread is the premium, fixed the moment the signal published. Losers are allowed to decay toward expiry while winners are scaled (see the RUNNER tags and banked figures). Many small capped losses funding the occasional outsized winner is how a power-law book is supposed to look mid-cycle.
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